Getting The Edge...Analyzing Injuries

Getting The Edge….Analyzing Injuries… The key to winning at sport betting is trying to find an edge over the linesmakers, finding a inflated or deflated line or what we call an “LMM” (linesmakers mistake).  One of the ways of getting a edge when handicapping basketball, is to know how to determine the difference a starter being out of the lineup will make to the next game. On a full schedule of NBA and college basketball, it is not out of the ordinary to find that half of the games will have one of the teams missing one or more starters.

 

 

Knowing what kind of impact that missing starter will have on the game is a huge edge….The formula I use is rather general but for handicapping purposes it is very accurate in adjusting the line. The key is to determine how many points the missing starter has contributed to each game based on the number of minutes played. Let’s say for example that the line on a particular game with all starters active would be team A –4.0. To adjust this line for the missing starter you must determine who the replacement will be and what that replacement is expected to produce based on the number of minutes to be played. We assume the replacement will play the same amount of average minutes the starter would have played based on past statistics. To keep it simple let’s say the missing starter averages 40 minutes per game. He is averaging 20 points per game including field goals and foul shots, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals and 3 turnovers. By dividing 40 minutes into 20 points, we find he is averaging .5 points per minute. I use 1 point ratio for each rebound, assist, steal and turnover. So with 5 rebounds we find he is getting .012 rebounds per minute, 015 assists, 0.10 steals offensively. This would add up to a offensive production of  4.8 points for rebounds, 6.0 points for assists, 4.0 points for steals…Or his contribution for the 40 minutes he plays would be 34.8 points per game. With 3 turnovers per game we would deduct 3.0 points giving him an impact of 31.8 points per game or 0.79 points per minute. 

 

 

Now, taking the replacement into consideration we follow the same formula breaking it down to points per minute played. Let’s say that the replacement in 10 minutes average play per game figures out to say 0.65 points per minute. Assuming the replacement will play the same amount of minutes as the missing starter, we could figure him to have a total production of 26.0 points per game….That means that the missing starter would take 5.8 points of production away from this game. If there is more than one starter missing, then you have to repeat this process for that player also. You must do this for both teams if in fact they both have missing starters and then figure the difference the bench players will make and adjust the line accordingly. Knowing who the replacement will be is usually not too difficult if you find out who replaces this starter when he is resting or has missed a previous game. You can always go to the team stats page or team home page and invariably there will be an article on the status of the team for the next game.

 

 

This has proven to be a huge edge in handicapping a basketball game. Finding one or two extra points edge on 2 or 3 games in any given day could very well be the difference in a winning or losing season. It might take a little extra time, but hey making money in any business is not always supposed to be easy. Detail, detail, detail…the more details you can identify when handicapping the further ahead of the public and linesmakers you will be. Another big edge in handicapping basketball, or any sport for that matter, is to know what the “real home court advantage” really is….This will be covered in a upcoming Diamond Line newsletter….. 

www.tonydiamond.com