College Basketball....Handicapping "The Big Dance"
It's tourny time and for sport bettors that means "action". Filling out brackets for your office pool or online contest is one part of the March excitement, but betting on the games is an entirely different situation. Filling out your brackets does not entail figuring in the point spread to determine the winner, or who advances to the next round, you need only pick the winner. Sounds easy...yeah right. The odds of getting a perfect bracket are estimated to be somewhere around 384 million to 1. You can always count on 4 or 5 upsets in the first round, ah, here lies the trick. Who will pull off the upsets? To win any bracket contest, that is usually the deciding factor, whoever can catch the upset winners will win the contest.
Whether your trying to win your office bracket contest, or making wagers at the sportbook, here are a few things you should take into consideration.
First I never even attempt to handicap the 1 vs 16 games in the first round. The point spreads are usually in the very high 30's or 40's and that is a very difficult chore to determine whether the favorite is really up for the game or whether the dog is so fired up they that they keep the game close in the first half until the big favorite goes into the locker room and the coach shocks them back to reality. For brackets of course, it's an easy choice.
Next is to look for teams that are coming in with "momentum". A team that has reeled off 5 or 6 consecutive wins, especially if there was an upset win or two, will get added consideration over a team that was upset in their conference tournament or have lost 3 of their last 5 or 6 games. The "Mo'" will carry into the tourny.
I then like to look at the "been there, done that" teams. Teams entering the tourny with 4 or 5 starters who were in the tournament the last year or two, will be more prepared for the hype and distractions associated with such a major event. There will be a higher comfort and confidence level than with a team with players who have never been there.
Coaching falls into the above category also...Coaches who have consistently year after year reached the tourny are much more capable of getting their teams ready and mentally prepared, and usually their win / loss record will show it.
Teams that have fared well on the road during the regular season must be given special consideration, as all games in the tourny are played on a neutral court (an occasional exception) which basically is the same as playing a road game for both teams. However, be aware of teams playing is very close proximity to their home town, they will undoubtedly have a much bigger fan base attending the games and a supporting crowd can give a team an extra adreline rush.
Schedule strength and conference strength are two major considerations whether filling out your brackets or making a wager against the spread. A team coming into the tourny with a 22-7 record going against a team with say a 20-8 record, by no means is an indication that they are the better team. If the 20-8 team plays in a major conference while the 22-7 team played in a much weaker conference, it is most likely the 20-8 team would be 28-0 if playing against the same competition.
There is also the "just glad to be here" aspect. Some teams who started the season with very little or no real expectations to reach the tourny, may just feel their season has been fulfilled and enter the tourny with the "doesn't matter what happens" attitude. This can work both ways however. A team with a "nothing to lose now" attitude can sometimes be so loose they just go out and have some fun and end up pulling off an upset of a major contender who is up tight looking ahead to the the final four.
When handicapping the games against the spread, you will want to take the regular season spread record into consideration. Some teams were undervalued or overvalued going into the season and the bookmaker never really caught up with them. Teams that have covered 60 or 70 percent of the spreads is certainly one in which I would be hesitant to go against.
Seeing as there is much more wagering interest in the tourny than throughout the season, much like the superbowl, the public will be laying down wagers on teams that have a positive public acceptance. Teams like Duke, N. Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana are teams the unknowing public will recognize as traditionally being very good teams, as is the case this year, it is not necessarily true, but the general public will many times not have a clue of how these teams performed in the current season. Seeing as the "public" is really who you are wagering against, the lines can be skewed by public conception. Here is where you can catch a good go against value on lines on these type of teams.
Of course when handicapping the games for wagering purposes, you have to take all your normal handicapping techniques into consideration such as, matchups, defense, scoring ability, 3 point percentage, foul shooting, turnovers.. etc...all the normal handicapping methods you use during the season. Just remember when using your power ratings, that the edge in the ratings should leans more toward you road game ratings as noone in the tournament is a home team.
Good Luck and enjoy the tournament....For more handicapping articles and a free subscription to the "Diamond Line" sport betting newsletter: Go To: http://www.tonydiamond.com ...As a sport betting advisor I am having the best basketball season in 16 years of business. Our members are up 118 units at the time of this posting...
Tony Diamond
tony@tonydiamond.com
Whether your trying to win your office bracket contest, or making wagers at the sportbook, here are a few things you should take into consideration.
First I never even attempt to handicap the 1 vs 16 games in the first round. The point spreads are usually in the very high 30's or 40's and that is a very difficult chore to determine whether the favorite is really up for the game or whether the dog is so fired up they that they keep the game close in the first half until the big favorite goes into the locker room and the coach shocks them back to reality. For brackets of course, it's an easy choice.
Next is to look for teams that are coming in with "momentum". A team that has reeled off 5 or 6 consecutive wins, especially if there was an upset win or two, will get added consideration over a team that was upset in their conference tournament or have lost 3 of their last 5 or 6 games. The "Mo'" will carry into the tourny.
I then like to look at the "been there, done that" teams. Teams entering the tourny with 4 or 5 starters who were in the tournament the last year or two, will be more prepared for the hype and distractions associated with such a major event. There will be a higher comfort and confidence level than with a team with players who have never been there.
Coaching falls into the above category also...Coaches who have consistently year after year reached the tourny are much more capable of getting their teams ready and mentally prepared, and usually their win / loss record will show it.
Teams that have fared well on the road during the regular season must be given special consideration, as all games in the tourny are played on a neutral court (an occasional exception) which basically is the same as playing a road game for both teams. However, be aware of teams playing is very close proximity to their home town, they will undoubtedly have a much bigger fan base attending the games and a supporting crowd can give a team an extra adreline rush.
Schedule strength and conference strength are two major considerations whether filling out your brackets or making a wager against the spread. A team coming into the tourny with a 22-7 record going against a team with say a 20-8 record, by no means is an indication that they are the better team. If the 20-8 team plays in a major conference while the 22-7 team played in a much weaker conference, it is most likely the 20-8 team would be 28-0 if playing against the same competition.
There is also the "just glad to be here" aspect. Some teams who started the season with very little or no real expectations to reach the tourny, may just feel their season has been fulfilled and enter the tourny with the "doesn't matter what happens" attitude. This can work both ways however. A team with a "nothing to lose now" attitude can sometimes be so loose they just go out and have some fun and end up pulling off an upset of a major contender who is up tight looking ahead to the the final four.
When handicapping the games against the spread, you will want to take the regular season spread record into consideration. Some teams were undervalued or overvalued going into the season and the bookmaker never really caught up with them. Teams that have covered 60 or 70 percent of the spreads is certainly one in which I would be hesitant to go against.
Seeing as there is much more wagering interest in the tourny than throughout the season, much like the superbowl, the public will be laying down wagers on teams that have a positive public acceptance. Teams like Duke, N. Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana are teams the unknowing public will recognize as traditionally being very good teams, as is the case this year, it is not necessarily true, but the general public will many times not have a clue of how these teams performed in the current season. Seeing as the "public" is really who you are wagering against, the lines can be skewed by public conception. Here is where you can catch a good go against value on lines on these type of teams.
Of course when handicapping the games for wagering purposes, you have to take all your normal handicapping techniques into consideration such as, matchups, defense, scoring ability, 3 point percentage, foul shooting, turnovers.. etc...all the normal handicapping methods you use during the season. Just remember when using your power ratings, that the edge in the ratings should leans more toward you road game ratings as noone in the tournament is a home team.
Good Luck and enjoy the tournament....For more handicapping articles and a free subscription to the "Diamond Line" sport betting newsletter: Go To: http://www.tonydiamond.com ...As a sport betting advisor I am having the best basketball season in 16 years of business. Our members are up 118 units at the time of this posting...
Tony Diamond
tony@tonydiamond.com
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