10 Tips For Handicapping College Bowl Games

10 Things To Consider When Handicapping Bowl Games....

 

Handicapping bowl games has a few different things to consider when trying to beat the line. You obviously still have to take your normal statistical handicapping formulas into consideration, but there are situations that are unique to handicapping bowl games. Here are the ones I consider to be important when doing your analyzation.

 

#1 - Look for teams coming into their bowl with momentum...I like to look at the last 3 games. Teams coming in on winning streaks are more to my favor than teams that have lost their last game or 2 out of 3 of their last 3 games.

 

#2 - Watch for the "I'd rather be home watching TV" teams. These are teams who feel they were slighted in the bowl they accepted. Some of the better teams in the country having to settle for lesser bowl games have a tendency to not even want to be there. I't's like an embarrassment to them and mentally are not prepared with a winning attitude.

 

#3 - On the other side of the coin from #2, watch out for teams who are just excited to be there. Some teams who had no thoughts of playing in a bowl game at the beginning of the season have a tendency to feel their season has been accomplished and whether they win or lose doesn't really matter. They feel the season is already made.

 

#4 - Look for teams who have "been there, done that". There is a lot of hype and distractions during bowl game week and teams that have never experienced it may be at a disadvantage when facing a team with bowl experience.

 

#5 - Look for teams with coaches who have considerable bowl game experience and especially a winning record in bowl games, this demonstrates an ability to "win the big game". Experienced coaches have an edge on preparing their teams for the hype of bowl games over a coach who is a first timer.

 

(Continued from previous newsletter)

 

#6 – Seeing as all bowl games are played on neutral fields, it is really a road game for both teams. I like to give an edge to teams who have had winning records on the road, especially against the spread during the regular season. Teams that do not have good road records will have the added problem of dealing with all the hype. Bowl experience of the coaches also plays a big part in the preparation, discipline and conduct of the players when on the road.

 

#7 – Handicapping the regular season is certainly a little easier as you have both teams having played basically the teams within their conference. This makes it easy to compare results against common teams. In bowl games you don’t have that luxury, but comparing the results of common regular season opponents that do exist is one of my favorite angles for getting an edge in handicapping bowl games. If team A for example has lost two games by an average say of 10 points per game to two teams that team B has beaten by an average of say 7 points, you most definitely have to figure this into your final prediction. Also in this category, you will want to weigh the performance of the two teams against teams that are in bowl games.

 

#8 – Overall schedule strength is a very important factor in handicapping bowl games, especially the strength of the conference of both teams. A team coming from a major conference will often be matched against a team from a much overall weaker conference. Playing a full schedule of much tougher opponents will give a big edge over a team playing their entire schedule against a lesser conference.

 

#9 – Always give an edge factor to teams that have a high percentage of spread covers during the regular season, especially covering the spread as a underdog. This indicates that they are playing “up” against the tougher opponents and have had a lot of value against the line. This will become even more prominent in a big game such as a bowl game.

 

#10 – Look for teams that may be in a revenge situation from the previous bowl season. It is not revenge against the team they are playing but more so to overcome a poor performance from a previous bowl game experience. A team who last year was a first time bowl team and got blown away, will have gained a lot of experience and will be much more prepared and will want to erase the stigma from last year.

 

 

 

As mentioned earlier, you still need to go through the normal statistical routine of handicapping the game including the objectives such as injuries, field conditions etc….The above are angles that are primarily unique to handicapping bowl games.

 

Good Luck and hope you have a great bowl season.

 

Get My Free Play-of-the-Day...now 15-4-3 on a 9-0 run...http://www.tonydiamond.com