Baseball....Big Profits From Home Betting Baseball

Baseball…The Biggest Money Maker Of All Betting Sports….
You don’t have to like it..You don’t have to watch it…but if your sport betting bottom line is making money...then the season has arrived. I have experienced over the years, as I am sure other sport services have, that many sport bettors ignore or choose not to get involved with betting baseball. “I don’t like watching the game” is the most common excuse I hear when one of my members say “I’ll see you in September”. Who said you have to watch the games? This indicates a purely an action or recreational player who obviously does not have their priorities set at making money, rather, they are just happy “being in action”. If you were playing the stock market, do you go to the company that you invested in to watch them work?. Of course not, you are only interested in whether they make you money. So what’s the difference with betting sports especially betting on baseball?

I am not saying baseball is easy to handicap, quite the opposite. Baseball is very difficult, time consuming and tedious to handicap. Most sport bettors do not have near the time nor the statistical expertise to be a consistent winner betting baseball. Unlike football and basketball, overall team performance is made up of 95% individual efforts of players rather than team play. A batter at the plate is on his own, a team mate can not help him swing the bat, nor does the fielder have the luxury of a teammate fielding the ball. In basketball and football much of the individual results are dependent on the rest of the team. If nobody blocks for the running back, they would hardpressed to ever gain one yard in a football game. If they don’t block for the QB to drop back and throw a pass, he would probably be sacked on every play. Because of baseball being more of an individual sport, the team overall rating has to be made up of the individual player power ratings of every player on the team. This means tracking and updating stats on every player every single day.

Years ago you could handicap 75% of the game just based on the starting pitchers. Not so any more. Today we have “early relievers”, “set up relievers”, “middle relievers”, “long relievers” and closers. It is very rare to see a pitcher with more than 4 or 5 complete games in a season. To handicap the pitchers (defense) in a baseball game, you must now keep daily records on all relievers, keeping track of who is available in the bullpen for a particular game and who is not, and adjust the power number for the bullpen accordingly. A statistical formula for rating pitchers does not include and ERA anymore. The formula must be actual and not assumed based on a nine inning game as is the ERA.

The first stat that must be determined is how many actual innings per game the starting pitcher averages per start. (innings pitched divided by games started). Starting pitchers previous stats when in a relief role are not included in the formula so it is imperative you keep stats on only the games he has started and not use his overall stats as are what is usually published in the stat sections of papers or websites. The next part of the formulas is to get the actual number of “earned runs” given up per innings pitched. (earned runs divided by innings pitched). This will give you the actual number of runs this pitcher is expected to give up and the number of innings he is expected to pitch. So if a pitcher has started say 10 games and has 70 innings pitched and has given up say 20 earned runs in those 10 starts, we can assume he will pitch 7 innings, give up .285 runs per inning resulting in his giving up 1.99 or 2.00 runs in this game. This means the bullpen would be pitching 2 innings of this game and using the same formula for the active or available bullpen, let’s say the bullpen gives up .335 runs for every inning pitched, then they would be expected to give up .67 runs in this game for an overall of 2.67 runs to be scored by the opponent with this starting pitcher and this available bullpen. You must now allow for the “unearned runs” given up by a team… Let’s say that in those 10 games, the team gave up 4 unearned runs. That means that the team will be expected to give up .40 unearned runs, now bringing the total the opponents are expected to score at 3.07 runs.

Starting pitchers stats can be extended to include games played at night, on grass, on turf, daytime, but I find it not necessary. However you should include the difference in the ball parks. For example: if the overall average runs by a visiting team throughout the league is say 5.4 and a team is visiting a ball park with an average of say 6.4, then the pitcher stat has to be adjusted by one run.

Handicapping the offense requires keeping records separately on all, home games, away games, vs lefty, vs righty, grass, turf, pitcher ranking whether the opposing pitcher is a A, B, C, D pitcher which is another formula based on runs allowed per game. The amount of runs expected to be scored will be determined by combining all the stats mentioned to come up with a actual anticipated run count. So if a team playing at home, on grass at night vs a C lefty is averaging 4.0 runs per game, you can expect a run output of 4.0. This means the team with the starting pitcher giving up a total of 3.07 runs, has a .93 run advantage. After calculating the pitching and run production for both teams, whatever the run output of both teams figures out to be, would be the anticipated final score of the game. From this you can get a total and a side. Team A giving up 3.07 runs and scoring 4.00 vs Team B scoring 4.40 runs and giving up 4.30 would make the final score 3.53 to 4.20, meaning team A should win this game by .67 and a total runs of 7.73 runs which would not make this a side play. We are looking for at least 1 run difference to make a side or a total play. If a team has a 2 run difference, then we will be considering making a “runline” play on the game.

Baseball is a sport bettors dream if you have the time and the right handicapping formula, because baseball is unique in that you could actually be at only 50% winners, or below, and still be in a profit situation. When to play runlines is a very very important part of making profit in baseball. One rule you should be aware of is, playing a “home” team on the runline. This is very risky because the home team when leading going into the 9th inning has the lead, they don’t have to bat. If they are winning by one run, then you have already lost the game. There are many other very unique betting angles in baseball that will be discussed in future articles.

As you can see, most sport bettors do not have the time to properly handicap an entire daily baseball schedule. It takes a fulltime effort and of course the betting strategies and angles to make the proper bet at the right time. Historically our service will rack up as many profitable units in one baseball season as we do in a football and basketball season combined. For more articles on sport betting or to get a subscription to our free sport betting newsletter go to: www.tonydiamond.com Check out our low selection service rates…we will do the work for you.

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