Live betting in tennis - How to bet on tennis in play

by Jack Johnson Designer


Many customers of bookmaker offices prefer to bet in real time. The reason is simple: the speed of earning or losing the bank, high odds, changing before their eyes.


Features of live betting in tennis

It has long been no secret that beating the bookmaker in tennis betting on the pre-match line is a very difficult task. The situation is very different in live betting where bookmakers have little time to correct the odds, which leads to the emergence of jacks and forks.

Tennis has a high percentage of volitional victories, so the true experts of this sport, who know how to read the game, regularly win in live betting at delicious odds, correctly determining the favorite. In addition, the score in the course of the match changes constantly, which opens up a huge horizon for using different strategies in tennis betting

Many customers of bookmakers in prefer to bet in real time. The reason is simple: the speed of earning or losing the bank, high odds, changing before their eyes. Live betting in tennis is a business for experienced players who thoroughly know all the possibilities of tennis players, the peculiarities of their game on any surface, they are familiar with the tournaments, the court system, the news about the life of tennis players.


Catching the overrated odds

One of the most popular in-play betting strategies in tennis is catching inflated odds. In most matches there are favorites and outsiders. The player chooses his or her favorite, which is not necessarily the same as the bookie's, and tracks its behavior in the match. The sportsman loses the beginning of the match, the odds on his victory go up. At the moment of the peak, when there is a turning point in favor of the favorite, the bettor bets on his victory. If the chosen tennis player wins, the whole question is how much the bettor gets. If he bets too late or too early, he will earn less, and if he waits for a moment when the athlete is on the edge, but still finds the strength to break the match, he will get the maximum.

The method described above is great for live tennis. Many tennis players don't like fast starts in a match and don't show their best game from the first minutes. They often give up the first game of the match. Bookmakers react by cautiously changing the odds. The exact numbers depend on the prestige of the tournament, player, etc.


Overlapping the pre-match bet by live betting

Every player wants to protect his investment. Live betting partly helps. In some cases, a bet made before the match can be protected by a bet made in real time.

This is possible when the odds are big enough and there is a suspicion that the favorite may lose. Let's consider a small example.


A day before the match a bet of 1000 rubles at odds of 2.00 is placed on the victory of tennis player X. The player wants to protect himself from a possible loss: for many people 1000 rubles is a considerable sum. Let's watch the match. Player X starts to win as he goes, the odds of player Y winning grows. When the odds rise to 4.35, you can play it safe and bet three hundred rubles on his victory.

If tennis player X wins, we get 2,000 rubles. After deducting the bet amount and the insurance amount, the net profit will be 700 rubles. If tennis player Y manages to turn the situation in his favor, we get 1305 rubles and get back all the money bet.


Playing "against the tired"

One of the simplest strategies for playing tennis betting in real time is to play "against the tired". Tennis players are human beings too, and can get tired. If an athlete has endured several 2-3-4 hour matches, a five-set at a grand slam tournament, and several smaller fights, they will inevitably get tired.


Fatigue can be both physical and mental. Even Nadal can lose the end of a season in which he won several prestigious cups. If there is nothing critical for the athlete in a particular match, he won or lost several games of a completely different level, and is at the tournament "for show", you can bet on his defeat in live betting.

For a good example, consider the quarterfinal match between Nadal and Andy Murray in Madrid in 2014. Murray got off to a gorgeous start to the match, maintaining a 75-80 percent first-serve hitting percentage. The set score was 6-1. Some bookmakers were taking bets on Nadal at odds of 2.00 or more, with pre-match quotes at 1.15.

Then Nadal got his head on straight and played the next two sets much better. The final score of the match was as follows: 1:6, 6:3, 7:5.

Players who watched the match in real time and bet on Nadal when he was losing got a nice score compared to those who bet on him before the match. And certainly compared to those who believed he was going to lose after the first set.


The difference between men's and women's tennis

If you think that there is no difference between women's and men's tennis, then it is better not to touch betting yet. One quote can explain the difference: "Women are physically weaker by nature, but psychologically they are stronger.

Their serve is noticeably weaker than that of men. For this reason the weaker sex plays better on the receiving end. Consequently, the percentage of won points on their serve is much lower for women. If in men's tennis on the average it is only 2-3 breaks per set, in women's tennis you can often see the opponents give a series of several breaks.

Women break the course of the match more often, which is explained by the will to win, less stamina, and high emotionality. It would seem that the tennis player found her game and won 3-4 games in a row, but a couple of minutes later her opponent drives her around the court. Or after a confident victory in the first set two unsuccessful games and a total defeat could follow.

In general we can conclude that women are less stable in tennis than men. The results of major tournaments clearly confirm it.


The correct rating

As it is known in tennis there are official WTA and ATP player ratings that take into account the points earned on the status tournaments. These rankings do not reflect the objective strength of tennis players and often mislead novice bettors. The system invented by Hungarian Arpad Elo is considered more useful for betting.

Arpad Elo rating has a special system of scoring, which is based on who the tennis player defeated and who he lost to. More points are awarded for beating a stronger opponent than for defeating a lower level opponent. The same is in case of defeats: more points are deducted for defeating an outsider than for defeating a top-ranked opponent. It is considered, and not without reason, that this rating more objectively evaluates the current level of athletes.


Role of Statistics

Everyone probably knows how to make a pre-match analysis and study statistics as part of that process. But how do you analyze a match using in-play statistics? Four statistical indicators allow determining the tennis player's current form:

  • Percentage of the first serve;
  • Points taken on the second serve;
  • Points won on the opponent's serve;
  • Unforced errors.

When one of these indicators is weak, but the other three are at a high level, the tennis player has a high chance of winning the match. If the two indicators are quite low, the probability of winning is low.

I should note that these indicators should be considered together with the level of the opponent. Thus, if a top tennis player doesn't have a good first serve, but is opposed by a weak player, it is more likely that the favorite will win due to his superiority in class.


Emotions of the Tennis Players

In live tennis, it is important to follow the emotions of the players. Because it is a solitary sport, mood swings will have an immediate effect on the game. If in men's tennis the influence of emotions is not so significant, in women's tennis it is often the most important factor. There can be 2-3 mood swings per match in women's competition.

For this reason, it is necessary not only to watch the match and statistics, but also to watch the broadcast to see the emotions of tennis players and react to what is happening in time with appropriate bets at online bookmakers.


Strategies for betting on tennis in play

Without a smart strategy, it is unrealistic to become a plus player in live tennis betting, especially for a beginner. With time you will surely be able to create your own system, but now it is better not to re-invent the wheel, and just use the experience of past generations. Next, I will introduce you to the most popular strategies for betting on tennis in play.



A simple and straightforward strategy based on the statistics of tie-break victories. The player should find out how often tennis players win an extra game when the score is 6-6, and then bet on the player who has an advantage in this indicator. Don't forget to take into account the coverage - the statistics on tie-breaks on clay, hard and grass can be very different.



Let me immediately mention that it is better to use this strategy for matches on clay, because the ball flies slower after the bounce, and therefore it is easier to make a break. Choose games involving racquets that are ranked 8-20 in the Elo ranking. In doing so, the player should be considered the favorite in the match. Watch the start to make sure that the selected tennis player is in good shape. Betting can be a longon on the breaks, the odds should be in the range of 2.00-3.00.


Bets on Favorites

Live betting strategy, which involves playing at low odds. It is necessary to bet on the victory of the favorite in games when he serves. Choose for this strategy is recommended men's tournaments on grass. Before making a bet, watch the start of the match, because it is important to make sure that the favorite is in great shape and is not going to lose the game.


Betting on the underdog on the break point in play

Looking for an outsider who is able to hold his serve well. We wait for the moment in play, when the underdog takes the serve (4:4, 5:5, etc.) when the score is equal. Bet on the outsider's victory in the set, but provided that the underdog has a break point and he has not lost a single serve in this set.


On Serving First

Statistics show that men win 88% of their first serves, while women win 74%. Because of this, it is advisable to bet on the first-serve player in the first game, if players of similar ability level meet. This strategy cannot be called a "win-win", but it is rather effective, given good money management.


Strategy 40:40

A working strategy for women's tennis, according to which it is necessary to bet on the fact that the game will be a score of 40:40. Should choose matches where there is no clear favorite and outsider. It is recommended to make a bet after the first three games - it is necessary to make sure of the unyielding nature of the match. The odds for such an outcome vary between 3.00 and 4.00, which allows you to use the Martingale financial management system to manage your bankroll without big risks.

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About Jack Johnson Junior   Designer

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Joined APSense since, July 25th, 2019, From Charlotte, United States.

Created on Aug 20th 2021 08:51. Viewed 2,760 times.


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