Coal or not

To coal or not to coal

 

The issue of coal remains at the centre stage of a battle between energy-starved industry and the left elements in the political arena, whilst the government sits at the centre taking flak from both sides. It finds itself in a soup since going for extraction of local coal was a pre-election pledge. Yet three years down the road, policymakers have been playing a game of one step forward, two-steps back on the issue. Time unfortunately, is not on the side of the government. With no significant gas finds having been made of late, the issue of finding an alternative source of energy, i.e. moving away from overall dependence on natural gas is increasing daily. The decision for not extending pipe gas connections to domestic consumers has already been executed as the gas supply can no longer cope with the growing demands. On the contrary, smooth supply of alternative sources of energy either for households or for industries has not been found. This has indeed become one of the biggest headaches for the incumbent party in power.

 

Taking advantage of the crisis, an influential quarter has tried to promote the idea that import based coal and LNG energy would be the solutions to primary energy crisis. Thankfully, the idea of imported coal seems to have been put on the backburner for now, as it has become obvious that the country lacks the requisite infrastructure to handle such large shipments of coal on the one hand, and the financial commitments in foreign exchange for undertaking a procurement plan of such large scale on the other.

Unfortunately, there appear to be a coterie of people who like to float these 'grand visions' like import of coal or liquefied natural gas (LNG) for that matter without bothering to look into the facts and realities on the ground. Given our severe constraints, the future of Bangladesh's energy needs would be much better served if we were to look, not beyond our borders, but within. One must not forget that for Bangladesh to attain the status of a middle income country by 2021, it will have to ensure an expanding employment base and that can only be achieved through expansion of industry, which inevitably leads us back to a sustained supply of affordable energy. Import of natural resources based energy system can never be affordable. Nor can a net-import policy form the basis of energy security for a country like Bangladesh.

 

Hence, if we are to forgo import of coal / LNG, we are left with the estimated 3.0 billion tons of high grade coal sitting, at present, largely dormant beneath our feet. With so much naivety on extraction methods and their 'adverse' effects on the environment, it would not be surprising if nothing actually materialized. As stated before, time is in 'short' supply and this being an issue of national economic security, we are perplexed by this utter lack of concern on the part of those who are in the driving seat. The Prime Minister is not well informed about the present situation of the energy sector. As a result, she is sometimes talking about keeping local coal for the future and sometimes for using it.

 

One is led to ask the inevitable question- when does a crisis become a crisis? When industry grinds to a halt, or perhaps when thousands of workers come onto the street demanding reopening of factories and mills. Do we really want to wait for the situation to get to that stage? Would it not be better to stop dreaming about these fantastic deposits of gas just waiting to be discovered 'any day now' and be pragmatic for a change? The basic reality on the ground is that even if a significant gas find was discovered today, rule of thumb points to a period between 2-3 years before it could be channeled to end-users. Concrete policy level decisions need to be taken today keeping that timeline in mind.

 

Similarly, the concrete initiatives for mining coal if started today, the benefit of getting the coal for its commercial use will take 3-4 years. If the decision makers wish to concentrate for their short tenure only in terms of energy issues handling, no gas discovery to supply to consumer end and no mining of coal will be possible. The narrow vision will equally not be helpful in developing the base load energy and power supply infrastructure within a single tenure of the government for assuring long term energy security. Accordingly the government will have to demonstrate the real life planning for attaining the Vision 2021. It is no secret that without long term and sustainable energy sector planning and implementation of projects based on coordinated development of domestic energy resource -gas, coal and electricity- the vision statements will continue to remain hollow statements only.