Wealth Building

World mine production began to level max scalper Review off in the 1990s as gold traded a wide range but remained significantly lower than previous peaks, and by 2004, production was falling at a rate of 5% p.a. according to the World Gold Council. This as yet has not changed significantly and is a long term factor because it can take almost a decade for a rise in gold prices to generate exploration and eventual exploitation of new mines.

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In terms of the existing supply, much of this has come from ongoing central bank offloading of gold, and here many developed countries have now stopped both official and unofficial sales of gold. Previously, and as a result of the need to diversify, central banks carried out regular gold sales, but in some cases (see below) the reverse is happening as finance ministers see the need to protect against the inflationary consequence of fiat monetary policies that are rampant across major western economies.

Another aspect of supply that is changing is forward selling from gold producers, where output prices were traditionally locked in to protect against potential future falls in gold. This was a normal part of commodity hedging, and to some extent it might have helped keep the price down, but given the ongoing bull market, mining companies now run the risk of losing potential future profits if they hedge into rising prices. It is estimated that global gold producers have reduced forward sales by over 40%, which would result in a drop in supply of almost 1000 tonnes.

A big change in demand has come from central banks in China, Japan, India and Russia as a result of the need to diversify their vast US dollar reserves to some extent. The Russian central bank has hinted more than once that it plans to double its gold reserves, and the subject has regularly been mentioned by the Chinese central bank. All this is mainly as a result of the high proportion of trade-related US dollars flowing into their coffers, which has made them proportionately more reliant on the value of those dollars held.

As an example of potential demand, Japan and China have the eighth and tenth largest gold holdings in the world, but their current gold holdings are equivalent to just 1% of respective reserves. An increase of 50% in their gold reserves for just these two central banks would be the equivalent of buying over 600 tonnes, which is around a quarter of world annual mine production. Russia and India's gold as a percentage of total reserves is slightly higher but stands at just 4%, so there is scope for additional demand here.

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