California is no stranger to drought, but new research suggests the state is heading toward a far more severe water crisis than many anticipated. Without urgent action, California could lose between $3 billion and $14 billion annually in water-related agricultural losses, according to a study from the University of California, Davis. The state's water supply is projected to shrink by up to 25 percent by 2050, which could force nearly 3 million acres of farmland out of production and eliminate 67,000 rural jobs.
This grim forecast has sparked concern across the agricultural sector, especially in the Central Valley where farming is both a livelihood and a way of life. There are many experts that say the state’s current approach to water management is no longer sufficient. With climate change increasing and surface water becoming less reliable, the need for a more efficient water usage has become a matter of survival for many farmers.
Andrew Coppin, CEO of Ranchbot, believes technology can play a crucial role in adapting to these challenges. Ranchbot is an agricultural tech company that specializes in remote water monitoring systems. Coppin says the current crisis calls for a fundamental shift in how farms manage water. With dwindling supplies, the old methods of manual monitoring and seasonal planning are no longer sustainable.
Smart water management tools are designed to provide farmers with real-time data on water levels, leak detection, and tank performance. It allows farmers to make faster, more informed decisions about how and where to use limited water resources. In regions where even minor leaks or inefficient practices can translate into major losses, this kind of precision matters more than ever.
The UC study above highlights the increasing disconnect between available water and agricultural demand. As the climate warms, groundwater supplies are being depleted faster than they can be replenished. Without changes to how water is stored, transported and used, the state could face a deepening agricultural decline that affects not only food supply, but also the economic stability of entire communities.
This is where legislative action also comes into play. Senate Bill 72, currently under consideration in the California legislature, would establish the state’s first-ever water supply target. The goal is to develop 9 million acre-feet of new water by the year 2040 through a mix of conservation, infrastructure, and technological innovation.
Supporters of the bill argue that California must take a more proactive and coordinated approach to managing its water future. The bill aims to incentivize both public and private investment in technologies that improve water efficiency and expand supply. On the flip side, critics caution that new water projects must be sustainable and equitable, especially for small farmers who may struggle to afford new systems without subsidies or financial assistance.
Coppin says one of the biggest barriers to tech adoption in agriculture is not the availability of tools, but the ability to scale them. While large commercial farms may already be using some form of digital monitoring, many smaller or mid-size operations still rely on manual checks and historical patterns to guide their water use. With unpredictable weather and tighter regulations, these approaches are becoming riskier.
Affordable and easy-to-install solutions could make a difference in closing that gap. Tools that deliver accurate information without requiring complicated infrastructure or technical training are more likely to be embraced by a broader group of farmers. Coppin emphasizes that the aim is not to replace farmers’ expertise, but to give them better visibility into their operations.
California’s agricultural landscape has always evolved with the times. From the development of large-scale irrigation systems in the early 20th century to the adoption of drought-resistant crops in recent decades, farmers have repeatedly shown resilience in the face of adversity. However, the challenges ahead may be unlike any the industry has faced before.
The current crisis presents both a warning and an opportunity. The warning is clear: without change, California risks losing a large share of its agricultural productivity. The opportunity lies in how the state and its farmers choose to respond. By embracing innovation and aligning policy with long-term sustainability, California has the chance to not only preserve its farming heritage but also to lead the way in water-smart agriculture.
Technology will not solve the water crisis alone. But it could be one of the most effective tools in a broader strategy to ensure California’s farms continue to thrive in a drier, more uncertain future.