To interpret the situation on the market correctly and figure out what
some actions and events will cause, you need to learn to "read", group
and analyze information, received from external sources. To predict
future currency fluctuations, you must learn two types of analyses:
technical and fundamental.
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Let us find out what are the features of each one of them.
Fundamental Analysis
This type of analysis is based on the analysis of economic and political
news and their influence on the changes in currency rates. It is a set
of actions, and their main task is to predict the behavior of the prices
on the Forex market. The basis of these actions is the consideration of
the fundamental data of the countries, whose currencies are involved in
transactions. It is quite difficult to fulfill this analysis, because
the same factors may have different influences on the situation.
Therefore, the consequences may differ as well. The success of the
fundamental analysis depends on the clear understanding of the impact of
its components on the currency market. Fundamental analysis considers
in consideration the following list of indicators:
- the interest rates of central banks;
- the economic policy of the state;
- the political situation;
- the characteristics of economic growth;
- the indicators of the trade balance;
- the inflation rates;
- state solvency;
- investor sentiment;
- the competitiveness of the product;
- consumer sentiment;
- state of the real estate market;
- state of the labor market;
- other indicators.
Fundamental data is published in the form of indexes and often can be
reviewed and reevaluated. When estimating data, the comparison of
previous and current indexes happens and the dynamic and economic
processes for several years are analyzed. However, it is not enough just
to have the necessary data: it is also vital to have analytical skills
to associate information and the possible consequences that it will
cause. Analytical skills may be developed through constant trainings
because only professionals can analyze the situation and make the most
effective decision in a short period.
The conducting of fundamental and technical analyses must be the mandatory part of every trader's work.
Fundamental analysis is the process of reviewing the global economy
news, careful studying them and the choice of the right algorithm of
action. Events that happen in the world, influence position of the
currency on the Forex market. For example, the tense situation among the
banks of one country may result to a drop of the currency of this
country. Fundamental analysis requires patience and time. The feature of
the analysis is its orientation on long-term deals (year, half a year,
quarter). That is why some traders refuse to conduct this analysis.
Although having understood its basics and having read a book on
macroeconomics, a powerful tool for the prediction of future situations
will be at your disposal.
Technical Analysis
This is the method of currency rate prediction, based on the analysis of
charts, using technical indicators. This type of analysis has been an
irreplaceable instrument in trader's work and has been used for many
years. It helps determine the future direction of the price movement
based on historical data. The advantage of this analysis is the
opportunity to use it in short-term and middle-term forecasts, from
operations carried out within one day to transactions, that last for
several weeks. Technical analysis is based on three axioms:
- Market considers everything. Factors that influence the market has already been reflected in the price and determined the behavior of market participants.
- Price moves in a specific direction. Any price change
has one of three directions - trends. The trend may go up (rising or
"bullish"), down (or "bearish") or may be "flat". The task of the trader
is to identify the trend in its infancy and follow it while trading
until it changes.
- Market has a good memory (history repeats). The pattern of the previous situations is reflected in the present. Laws, that influence the market remain unchanged.
Charles Dow (1851-1902) is called the "father" of technical analysis. In
the late 19th century he published a series of articles in which he
outlined his observations of the stock market. His observations formed
the basis of the technical analysis. Technical analysis includes methods
that lets one figure out the most beneficial moment to enter the
market. All the methods are based on the evaluation of the trade volume
and price patterns. Instruments, which help in making decisions, are
graphical ways to display the information (candlesticks, bar charts,
line charts and other less popular ones) and other technical indicators,
based on historical price data. All the signals provided by indicators
are advisory. The use of indicators, together with other instruments,
that lets one conduct market analysis, will make your work more
effective.
The most effective option is to combine fundamental and technical
analyses. Of course, it is quite difficult, but this will help you
significantly increase chances to get stable income from trading on the currency market.
Fundamental analysis is based on the search of the reason unlike
technical analysis, that does not look for the reason but observes what
is going on with the currency rate. Тhus, both analyses are intended to
complement each other.
Conducting fundamental and technical analyses must be the mandatory part
of every trader's work. That is the only way that a trader would be
able to identify the sequence of actions and make the right decision.
It is quite difficult to analyze the situation on the foreign
exchange market. To make the work of a trader more comfortable, we have
such information as Market News, Economic Calendar and Interest Rates to conduct fundamental analysis. The trading platform MetaTrader 4 has a wide choice of instruments to conduct technical analysis.