TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for 19.12, 2013
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IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA
EURUSD:
After finding resistance in the level which indicates the last high, the price broke through the already broken 4-months bullis trend and decreased to the lower 40-days bullish trend (blue), where it looks it found support. After the yesterday’s drop now, most likely we will see an increase at least to the already broken 4-moths bullish trend (red). On the other hand, this afternoon there is an US Existing Home Sales report to be released, which could rapidly drag the price in both direction. It looks like the Momentum Indicator has reached its lowest level possile. It is also on its way to create a Momentum double bottom formation, which could support the bullish thesis.
USDJPY:
There were many events for this pair in the last two days. First the price broke in bullish direction through its 3-days bearish trend line (turquoise), then it appeared that the bullish sgnal was fake and the price broke through the 2-months bullish trend (white). This brought many bearish thoughts, which were refuted yesterday. The price rebounded, broke upwards the already broken bullish trend (white) and even broke the previous top it create, forming a 63-months hight. Now it looks like the price is trying a flag, which could also appear to be a double top formation. This is the reason we should wait, because the flag is a trend-continuing formatio, while the double top is a trend-changing formation.
GBPUSD:
Saying that the GBP has increased its value after U.K. jobs report release is a little bit exaggerated. That does not mean that the report did not affect the price direction but we should not skip the technical details on this chart. If we have a closer look on the H1 chart we could determine that the technical data on the chart anticipated the fundamental data. We should not forget that the price jumped through the bearish trend line AFTER an interaction with the already broken 5-years resistance (now a support). Also, on H4 we notice a big divergence between the Momentum Indicator and the chart. The Momentum Indicator was signalising that the price demonstrates bullish activity, while it was actually moving downwards for three days. The end result was the yesterday’s jump. Furthermore, the big move came a minute before the reports. Anyway, as a result of the yesterday’s events, the price formed a new top at 1.6485. For now the situation points that the bullish activity would probably continue.
USDCHF:
On H4 chart we notice that the price has cancelled its bearish move after forming a Double Bottom Formation. As a result of the yesterday’s US events, the price did a bullish jump closing a double bottom formation. If we were more careful, we would notice that the Momentum Indicator anticipated the jump and signalised for it in advance with crossing the 100-level line in bullish direction For now the price is on a 1/3 of the way it has to go in order to fully complete the formation, so we still have time for a long position, which could bring us a decent profit of 50 pips.
AUDUSD:
It could be said that the D1 Head and Shoulders formation is already completed after the yesterday’s drop. Also, something important is that with breaking the previous bottom the price created a 40-month high yesterday. The price is still located in the bearish corridor. It is on the lower level of the corridor and now some bullish activity is expecte now. If you feel confident enough, you could try to trade the eventual bullish correction.
Source From: Forex-Metal Forex Broker
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