Relations with Iran and the USA

by Kevin Smith Author

It would be an understatement to describe American Iranian relations as difficult, most recently very contentious, and not on any clear path to improvement. Several reasons for this exist, but let's focus on some recent events that are emblematic of the challenges for both sides.

Terrorist Designations

In recent days we have seen the Trump administration designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), not without some controversy. This follows Trump's withdrawal in May of 2018 from the Iran nuclear framework deal of 2015. This is the first time a part of a government has been designated an FTO.

While the reimposition of sanctions by the current administration has had a profound effect on Iran's economy, this recent announcement was not expected to create significant additional pressure. It does, however, bring in more law enforcement activity, which may mean more scrutiny and pressure on other global companies to reduce or stop dealing with Iran. That could make a difference because it is estimated that the IRCG controls about 20% of Iran's economy.

Iran has responded through parliamentary action by designating all of the US troops in the Middle East as terrorists.

Now What?

Whether or not this is an escalation of the war of words, more symbolic than substantial, or it actually packs some punch remains to be seen. It certainly indicates the feelings of this administration with regard to Iran's current leadership and how they wish to deal with it. Their belief is that more pressure will eventually push Iran to the negotiating table. Despite significant financial impacts and real unrest within Iran, there does not appear to be any interest in making changes by those in charge.

Is There an Endgame?

Which historical precedent is the lesson? Is the pressure put on by the West against the Soviet Union how this will end, or are we dealing with another North Korea? It is likely neither, rather something in between, but the one real hope is that some miscalculation does not set off a shooting match. The general Iranian population would certainly like to rebuild their economy, expand their personal freedoms, and create a pluralist society. They have the wherewithal to do it. The current leadership wants none of that and will fight that outcome to the utmost. It characterizes the current state of American Iranian relations in the harshest terms with little chance of reconciliation.