How the US keeps losing ever more ground in the world ...

Its leitmotif is an extraordinary sense of optimism that is almost unnerving, given the picture the Middle East presents today as an exhausted region where the best lack all conviction. The Third Way involves ten templates:

• rejection of use of force as solution to the region’s problems;
• turndown on ‘zero-sum’ mentality and concepts of ‘sphere of influence’;
• respect for “will and role” of local parties “neighboring countries and regional organizations” and repudiation of “solution from outside”;
•  “comprehensive strategy” to address “both symptoms and root causes” of terrorism;
•  dialogue and development as the panacea for region’s problems;
• respect for “national conditions” – historical and cultural, economic, societal;
• ‘win-win’ strategy of cooperation based on “convergence of interests”;
• upgrade of energy cooperation;
• “action plan” to galvanize the industrialization process of the region through “technology transfer, personnel training and strong financing support”;
• all-round development of people-to-people relations.

No big power ever unveiled such a vast canvas of partnership with the Arab world. Importantly, Xi fleshed out the terms of engagement.

China does not intend to militarily intervene in the regional conflicts. It differentiates from the US and Russian approaches alike on fighting terrorism – “No policy can be effective on its own, and a comprehensive strategy that addresses both symptoms and root causes must be applied in the fight against terrorism”. Thus, China will set up a China-Arab research centre on reform and development, use China-Arab States Cooperation Forum to hold roundtable on ‘inter-civilization dialogue’ and on eradication of terrorism, and “organize exchange of visits by 100 renowned religious scholars. China has earmarked a $300 million assistance program to support law enforcement and police training.

Of course, China’s motivations have a pronounced economic orientation. Take, for instance, the ‘oil and gas plus’ cooperation model to be built “across the entire industrial chain from upstream to midstream to downstream” and on long-term purchase agreements. China hopes to sign more currency swap agreements, expand RMB settlement business, steer investment funds and private capital toward major projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, and to “explore a model of package cooperation involving oil, loan and project”, and take part in the development of industrial parks geared to create jobs and promote exports.

The ingenious “1+2+3″ pattern visualizes energy cooperation as core priority, infrastructure development and trade and investment facilitation as two key areas, and nuclear energy, aviation satellite and new energy as the three high-tech areas for breakthrough. China offers a $15 billion special loan for the industrialization of the Middle East, another $10 billion as commercial loans and a further $10 billion as soft loans, apart from launching a $25 billion joint investment fund with the UAE and Qatar “to primarily invest in traditional energy, infrastructure development and high-end manufacturing industries” in the Middle East.

The foundations of petrodollar recycling that sustains western hegemony is for the first time facing serious challenge. The West has neither the interest and stamina nor the capacity and expertise to create the sort of production chains with infrastructural back-up that China intends to. On the other hand, unlike Asia-Pacific, Middle East does not offer scope for a ‘rebalance’ strategy, either, since China carries no historical baggage in the region, whereas the US and the West have a dubious legacy of violence and exploitation to overcome.

Unsurprisingly, China assertively projects its soft power as an integral part of the Third Way. In Xi’s words,

• The Chinese and Arab civilizations each have their own systems and distinctive features, yet they both embody the common ideals and aspirations of mankind for development and progress, and they both champion such values as moderation, peace, forgiveness, tolerance and self-restraint. We should promote dialogue among civilizations in a spirit of inclusiveness and mutual learning and explore together values in our respective cultural tradition that remain relevant today as positive guidance for good relations.

One cannot visualize empathy on such lines articulated by a western (or Russian) statesman. Alas, they are all cherry-picking, while China says it is willing to engage without reserve and hopes to

• launch a Silk Road Book Translation program for the translation of 100 Chinese and Arab classics;
• strengthen “connectivity” between think tanks by inviting 100 Arab experts and scholars;
• provide training for 1000 “young Arab leaders”;
• invite 1500 “leaders of Arab political parties” to visit China;
• provide 10000 scholarships and earmark 10000 training slots for Arab states;
• set up a joint university;
• link up 100 cultural institutes;
• build on 11 Confucius Centres in the Arab world;
• maintain 183 flights per week between China and the region; and,
• organize mutual visits of 10000 Chinese and Arab artists.

To be sure, this is a spectacular diplomatic feat by China to outflank the US’ pivot strategy in the Asia-Pacific and at the same time to challenge Uncle Sam in his traditional hunting grounds. It’s double whammy, since from Cairo Xi traveled to Tehran where he forewarned Washington that Iran’s long-awaited accession as member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization is getting under way.