History and statistics show that Bitcoin will return to $ 19,000 this year

by John Smith Learner

The summer heat has once again warmed up the Bitcoin exchange rate, but will this push be as strong as two years ago? To answer this question, we tried to find a connection between the BTC rate in the summer of 2017 and the summer of 2020.

Why it is important to consider dependencies

Over the entire history of the existence of cryptocurrencies, analysts have drawn figures that show that each fall of the main coin by 70% or more is accompanied by its further growth of at least 5 times. Following this pattern, the next minimum price peak before a deep correction will be at the level of $ 100 thousand.

The “Cycle of Moods” described by Justin Mamis came under the cryptocurrency market capitalization chart, which once again proves Bitcoin's cyclicality.

It is also known that in trading there is a seasonal cycle, and the spring-summer period is considered sometimes when the coins strengthen. If history repeats itself and it is proven, then why not find out if the growth of BTC 2017 is similar to the growth of 2019?

The heat begins in spring

The previous rise in bitcoin began in the spring, when the rate rose from $ 1,200 in April to $ 2,300 by June 1. This year we saw something similar - an increase from $ 5200 to $ 8800 over the same period. At the same time, market capitalization in 2017 increased from $ 20.8 billion to $ 38.3 billion, and in 2019 from $ 93.4 billion to $ 152.2 billion for the segment under consideration.

If you look at the whole segment from the end of April to the end of August, we get the following figures.

2017: $ 1,200 - $ 4,600 (an increase of 3.8 times).
2019: $ 5300 - $ 10,000 (1.9 times increase).

Capitalization:

2017: 21 billion - 76 billion
2019: 94 billion - 179 billion

BTC correlation

Correlation is the dependence of quantities on each other. In our case, this is the current rate of bitcoin and the sample of 2017. If we assume that there really is a relationship between them, then we can make a rough forecast of the Bitcoin exchange rate and determine when it will again return to $ 19,000.

For this, we need not only summer figures, but also autumn and winter ones. From September to the peak of 2017, the rate rose from $ 4,600 to $ 19,000, respectively 4.1 times, i.e. growth rate in autumn remained almost the same as in summer (3.8 and 4.1).

Accordingly, for 2019, we will leave the figure 1.9 times. In this case, it turns out that if Bitcoin maintains its current growth rate, then by the end of the year we will return to $ 19,000 again. Here is such a cycle.